TTA pegs hopes on rail service

Riders want cheaper, faster, more reliable, less stressful commutes

By VICKI HYMAN, Staff Writer

R.J. Bornhofen could catch a bus about a half-mile from his North Raleigh cul-de-sac to get to his job as an e-business manager in West Raleigh. But the ride would take more than an hour, including two transfers, and for him that's too much bother.

Bornhofen might be willing, however, to drive three miles in the opposite direction to a train station and ride the rails to work -- if it were more affordable, faster or just meant fewer headaches in traffic.

"Maybe I trust trains a little more," Bornhofen said. "They're going to stick to the schedule. They're not going to be bogged down by traffic accidents."

The Triangle Transit Authority will break ground this year on its rail system, promising a hassle-free commute for passengers such as Bornhofen. Its backers, who have spent more than 10 years on study and planning, hope the rail line will eventually revitalize downtowns; produce new, vibrant business districts; and reshape the way people live and work.

None of that will happen, however, if no one rides the train. To succeed, the TTA will have to show commuters that rail is more convenient, faster and more reliable than driving.

Trains are scheduled to start running from downtown Raleigh through Cary and Research Triangle Park to downtown Durham in late 2007. The line will extend to North Raleigh and Duke Medical Center three years later, and by 2014, the trains will run every 10 minutes during rush hour. By then, the TTA will have spent $813 million in state, local and federal funds on the rail line.

But in a region where half-empty buses ply Interstate 40 at rush hour, winning loyal transit riders will not be as simple as "build it and they will come."

Danny Mamo of Apex, for one, has no intention of taking the train to his job as an economist at RTI International in Research Triangle Park, and he thinks many others will be reluctant as well. Stations will be too far from many neighborhoods, Mamo said, and getting to them will take too much effort for most people.

"You're going to have to really convince people it's going to save them time and money," he said. "You're going to have it in so few locations. People are going to have to drive to it. How is that going to save me time? I'm not going to get up at 5:30 if I'm going to get to work at 8."

The TTA's ridership projections assume that most drivers will resist switching to transit. At first, TTA officials project about 11,000 boardings a day, mostly by passengers who have no other way to get around and would otherwise have taken a bus. The experience of other new rail lines shows that only about one-third of the passengers are riders by choice, largely new to mass transit.

But by 2025, the agency hopes the number of passengers will more than double to 28,000. It plans to market the system not only to commuters but also to university students and patrons of events such as Durham Bulls baseball games and N.C. State University football games, where traffic and parking can be a hassle, said TTA General Manager John Claflin.

To make things convenient, the TTA plans 4,000 parking spaces in park-and-ride lots along the route and will run shuttle buses from neighborhoods to the stations. Claflin expects the agency will have to add even more parking at the stations as the system gains popularity. The initial 4,000 spaces, he said, are "not going to be enough."

The TTA doesn't promise the Orient Express or a World of Tomorrow monorail. Riders will board self-propelled diesel rail cars, throwbacks to a once-popular mid-century design. Top speeds will reach about 60 mph, but the average will be about 35 mph, slower between stations that are close together.

Larger, smoother-riding and more comfortable than typical city buses, the rail cars will offer cloth-covered seats instead of molded fiberglass, and perhaps laptop jacks and water fountains. If buses are the Toyota Corollas of the transit world -- serviceable and plain -- the rail cars might be the Camrys.

The TTA isn't building Union Station, either. The rail cars will pull up to outdoor platforms, shaded from wind and rain by canopies, with monitors to track the progress of the trains. Fares will be about $1.50.

John Roberson, the TTA's chief civil engineer, said actual ridership may be higher than the agency's formal predictions, because it is relying on a conservative computer model that assumes people will take the train only if it is faster than driving.

But TTA officials think people will opt for rail because it's more dependable and less stressful than driving. It may typically take 30 minutes to drive from Raleigh to RTP, but sometimes car crashes or construction can double or triple the commute time. The train, immune from bumper-bashing or rubbernecking, will get riders to their destinations on time.

The TTA's projections show that when the system opens, train travel will beat car travel by several minutes on major routes, including those to Research Triangle Park from downtown Durham and Cary. The gap is expected to grow even wider as highway congestion worsens.

By 2025, the TTA predicts, driving to RTP from downtown Raleigh in the morning will take nearly an hour; going by train would save 17 minutes. Driving from Durham to RTP will take about 26 minutes; going by train would save 10 minutes.

The TTA's figures, however, don't tell the whole story.

The rigid route of the rail system, along an existing freight corridor, permits stations near major employment centers such as RTP, but many riders will have to take shuttle buses from the rail stop to their offices in the park. The travel times used by the agency don't include walking to the train station or waiting for a shuttle bus connection.

The route also places some stations in slightly out-of-the-way sites. Rail cars won't bring commuters into the heart of downtown Raleigh, for instance. Instead, they will roll up to the edge of the warehouse district.

So passengers planning on a 39-minute ride from downtown Raleigh to RTP, for example, would also have to consider the time it might take to walk to the rail station and hope a bus is waiting at the other end.

Plus, rail won't be available on demand, like an automobile, which is important for parents who may worry about picking up a sick child at school. In the first years of the rail line, the trains will come every 15 minutes during the morning and afternoon rush and every 30 minutes the rest of the day.

The TTA acknowledges that the rail system will have almost no impact on traffic congestion across the region, although officials say drivers could notice a difference along certain routes. Initial daily boardings of 11,000 actually translate into fewer than 5,500 people, because most riders will board once in the morning and again to go home. If two-thirds of those riders already ride the bus, the trains at first would take fewer than 2,000 cars off the road each day.

Rail critics call it folly to spend money just to attract riders who are apparently happy to drive.

Karl Gaskins, an architect who lives in southeastern Wake County, said the TTA would do more good by subsidizing transportation for people who can't afford cars. He said he'd rather see the money spent for a better bus system that could take workers where they need to go.

"There are people and jobs that aren't getting together," he said. "Wouldn't that be a better way to spend it than to spend it for an empty seat on a light rail system?"

But TTA's Claflin, who helped plan and build rail systems in Portland, Ore., and Denver, predicted that once the system starts running, the public will quickly urge that it be extended.

"The initial segment is the most political," he said. "After that, the extensions come flowing. There's so much request for extensions, you can't keep up with the planning."

The agency is already looking at trains or special bus lanes from Chapel Hill to the TTA's south RTP station and improved bus service to Raleigh-Durham International Airport. Other plans call for possible rail extensions to Garner, Apex, Fuquay-Varina, Wake Forest, Hillsborough and North Durham. Eventually long-haul locomotives could conduct commuters from eastern Wake County, Smithfield or even Wilson into the heart of Raleigh.

The trains are bound to attract riders, at least at first, in the way people are drawn to the latest toy, some transit experts say. But after the novelty wears off, reliability becomes important, said Steve Polzin, transit research director at the University of South Florida's Center for Urban Transportation Research in Tampa.

"Everyone will come out and ride it and try it," Polzin said. "Folks will experience it as an event and as an attraction. Convenience and service quality is what will determine the sustained use over time."